I consistently and persistently read Brexit supporters complaining about how the British government is clueless in its negotiations over Brexit with the EU.
According to these people, the government is being weak, wimpy, spineless etc. etc. and merely needs to tell the EU how it is going to be. Apparently the UK doesn’t owe the EU a single Euro and therefore should tell the EU to take a hike.
Oh dear.
Let me see if I understand this.
The UK wants to get into a fight with 27 other countries with a combined GDP of over 5 times the UK GDP over leaving the EU?
Yes, why not. What could possibly go wrong?
After all, there are only 759 (probably more) treaties and agreements that the UK would need to replicate with other countries in order to continue trading with those countries.
If the EU does decide that it wants to really penalize the UK, all it would need to do is pickup the phone and call a lot of non-EU countries to warn them off trading with the UK. The implied threat would be rather obvious. The good news, therefore, is that the UK may not need 750+ treaties, because the list of countries willing to trade with the UK might be a much shorter list than the UK thinks it should be.
I suggest that the UK government leaders of bellicose posturing go to Athens and talk with Alex Tsipiras about how thumping the table and declaring “no compromise” worked out for Greece in its negotiations with the EU.
The EU holds all of the cards in these negotiations. The UK has next to nothing to bargain with. It is one country against 27, with the UK playing the petulant foot-stomping adolescent who wants out. Nobody in the EU leadership is going to be inclined to give the UK anything n negotiations.
So, the idea that the UK can somehow “hang tough” and get all of what it wants from the EU exit negotiations is an idea originating somewhere between FantasyLand and CloudCuckooLand. The UK has next to no leverage, other than walking away and triggering a “hard” Brexit, which will leave the country totally unprepared to become a single country in international relations and trade. The results will be disastrous. The UK will splinter, and Scotland will probably secede.
