While some folks get excited about the VP bagging a lawyer instead of a quail, not very far from us a series of tales of deceit, double-dealing, backstabbing, financial avarice, public posturing, bullshit and other examples of human mendacity is starting to unfold.
I refer of course, to the NFL off-season.

This is when clubs fire unwanted or suddenly-too-expensive-despite-the-mutual-protestations-of-undying-love-and-admiration-when-we-signed-you-to-that-19-year-10-gazillion-dollars-contract players, finagle their salary caps (twice), make backroom deals for the NFL draft lottery, and generally alter their player, coach and personnel landscapes.
Sit back, ladies and gentlemen, because this off-season promises to be a lot more interesting than usual.

The main reason is the imminent expiry of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement. The main impact is that if the CBA expires, 2007 will be an uncapped year. This will, one suspects, favour certain owners (with names like Jones and Snyder) who have big egos, big franchise values and big checkbooks. According to prevailing orthodoxy, they will open their checkbooks and hoover up all of the available talent.
This is only superficially plausible. One notes that the New York Yankees, despite having an owner who spends millions on free-agents at about the same frequency I spend money at Starbucks, still tend not to win the World Series every season. However, it will certainly upset the applecart in terms of the players union, which is unlikely to be in favour of a salary cap after some of the marquee players literally get buried in vast quantities of guaranteed cash (roster bonuses? deferred salary? Phhht. Give me the cash NOW, dammit!)

It seems that the NFL may be about to agree a new CBA before the expiry of the Free-agent signing period, which may also be extended past March 2, both to allow the CBA to be extended, and also to head off the potentially unpleasant scenario of some free agents signing under the old CBA rules, only to find that their team-mates have signed under the new (presumably much more generous) rules. To paraphrase Paul Tagliabue, there may yet be a deal at the fifty-nineth minute of the eleventh hour...
Anyway, onto the more juicy stuff:


Duante Culpepper appears to be in the process of gaining a ticket out of Minnesota to somewhere else. Put it this way - any quarterback who plays poorly, suffers 3 torn knee ligaments in mid-season, finds himself charged with misdemeanours after, ahem, some allegedly interesting events aboard a boat, and then (rumor on) asks for a $10 million dollar salary raise for 2006 (rumor off), after firing his agent and now representing himself, has to be either (a) smoking some mind-altering material (b) trying to get traded or cut, or (c) both of the above. (One is also reminded of the old adage that any lawyer who represents himself has a fool for client, but I digress).

Culpepper has next to no leverage in contract negotiations with the Vikings, who have a capable backup (Brad Johnson) under contract already, and who can even afford to take the salary cap hit of releasing him if all else fails. He has been unwilling to accept any public culpability for the boat incident; indeed, he is taking it to a jury trial and hoping to be found not guilty. Even if this results in his acquittal, it merely drags the whole incident up in the media and public eye again, which is not something that the Vikings want or need. The severity of his knee injuries make him unlikely to be ready to play until some time in the 2006 season, and it is unclear whether he will be anywhere near as mobile as he used to be. For that reason, the Vikings are unlikely to ge able to trade him for anything other than a couple of conditional draft picks. The roster bonus owed him is also a sticking point.
My verdict: Culpepper is done in Minnesota. He may end up signing as a backup at another club for 2006 and hoping he can work his way back to being a starter over time.


Over in New Jersey, the boot is on the other foot, as the New York Jets attempt to renegotiate the contract of Chad Pennington, whose recent playing time of 18 games in 2 seasons has cost the Jets around $22m, since it involved 2 rotator cuff surgeries on his throwing arm along the way.

The boot is on the other foot here because, unlike the Vikings, the Jets are currently way over the 2006 cap, so cutting Pennington is not an option. The Jets could not afford to carry that amount of "dead" money on their books and still have something approximating to a team in 2006. Pennington and his agent therefore hold most of the cards. The Jets have asked him to convert his guaranteed salary and roster bonus for 2006 to the minimum base salary plus a deal to make make up most of the money through incentives. However, Pennington is under no obligation to say yes, and the Jets have no veteran backup QB waiting in the wings to use as leverage. This one may yet get ugly.


Kyle Vanden Bosch, on the other hand, is probably about to sign a very nice contract with the Tennesse Titans (for whom he played in 2005) or another club. After several years when he seemed to be felled by season-ending injuries every year (including 2 torn ACLs), Vanden Bosch recorded a large sack total, went to his first Pro Bowl, and is now a free agent at precisely the right time; with his efforts visible on all of the clubs' highlight reels from 2005. Expect him to sign a very lucrative contract with a large amount of guaranteed money at some time in the next 2 months. All power to him.


T.O. - The Saga Continues. The Eagles gave his agent permission to seek a trade, and Rosenhaus is busy testing and talking up the market in any way possible. While there seem to be a few clubs that are interested (and a larger number who claim that they are not), I still expect no trade, and T.O. to be released by the Eagles after March 2. I don't believe that any club wants him enough to give up more than one or two conditional low-round picks. T.O. has blown up two locker-rooms already. However, maybe (like marriage) some club genuinely does believe that third time's a charm...The question that every NFL player is probably dreading this offseason is "would T.O. fit in at your club?". It's become the new NFL equivalent of "when did you stop beating your wife"? Almost impossible to answer without digging yourself into some sort of interrogative hole.


Buffalo Bills. Dick Jauron has already done one smart thing by announcing that anybody who wants to start at QB in 2006 will have to earn it. I expect Kelly Holcomb to emerge as the starter again. He may not have the arm or athleticism of J.P. Losman, but when he is on the field the players seem to stop fidgetting and start doing the right things. Losman needs to work on his pocket presence, because based on last season, he has about as much pocket presence as Rob Johnson (and we know how that story ended).


Coaching Changes. Expect several teams who change coaches to do no better or worse under their new incumbents next season. Recent NFL history shows that stability is the main key to consistent high performance. This may spell bad news for teams that fired their coaches with marginal records. However, if you finished 2-14 (step forward, Houston Texans) an improvement would be expected, especially with Mike Sherman now assisting new head coach Gary Kubiak.
I will be watching to see if Mike Martz can install the same sort of light-it-up offense in Detroit that he did at St. Louis. More interestingly, which quarterback will he use to run it? He does not have the option of using Kurt Warner, who just re-upped with the Arizona Cardinals, and looks likely to play out his career with them. Off-season in Detroit will be more than a little intruiging...