Every season at least one NFL player who has either outperformed his contract, or is otherwise disgruntled, holds out of training camp. This year, Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jacksonville Jaguars' leading running back, is holding out, demanding that the Jaguars re-negotiate his contract, which still has two seasons to run.
Let it be forgotten, Jones-Drew is the NFL Rushing record holder from 2011. He also is a complete all-purpose running back. He is no lucky rookie. He has a track record.
Jones-Drew's situation is somewhat different to most hold-outs. Typically hold-outs occur when a player operating under a low-pay rookie contract outperforms the contract in his first couple of seasons, and demands a re-negotiation (think Chris Johnson of the Tennessee Titans). However, MJD is on his second contract; he negotiated a new contract in 2009, and it still has two seasons to run.
The new owner of the Jaguars, Shad Khan, has been making some tough comments in the last few days, essentially confirming that the team will not re-negotiate the contract.
As a practical matter, MJD has no contractual leverage. He can continue to hold out, but he will be fined for missing practices, and if he holds out into the season he will start forfeiting game checks. If he holds out past week 10 of the season, his contract will "roll over" to 2013, and he will end the season with no pay, still owing two years on it to the Jaguars. The Jaguars probably also studied the Chris Johnson - Titans standoff, where the Titans re-did Johnson's contract, only to have him turn in a mediocre season last year.
However, also from a practical standpoint, the stalemate carries a lot of risk for the Jaguars. Jones-Drew is not practising or playing with the team, and if he continues the hold-out, he has no risk of football injury, which could derail or end his career. He will be getting a nice breather from the most punishing role in the modern NFL.
In the meantime, the Jaguars enter the season with a largely unproven running back rotation. Running backs can always get injured, and a team that relies on a single RB can suddenly find its run attack threadbare. Think about what happened to the Dallas Cowboys when they lost DeMarco Murray to a broken ankle. They had no reliable workhorse back to fall back on, having cut Marion Barber, and with Felix Jones lacking durability. Right now the Jaguars can blather on about how good they feel about their running backs and their offense, but this is all hot air.None of their current running backs have the track record of Maurice Jones-Drew, and one or more of them could suddenly disappear to injured reserve. If that happens, the Jaguars will suddenly need MJD rather badly.
You can be sure that if Week 4 arrives and everybody knows that the Jaguars have no running attack worth a damn, the team will be suddenly figuring out a way to get MJD back on the field. Without a decent running attack, the Jaguars will be forced to rely on a passing attack led by a second-year quarterback (Blaine Gabbert) who still has to prove himself at NFL level. Of course, MJD could always return to the field, only to underperform relative to previous seasons (see Johson, Chris). If the team thinks this is possible (and MJD has already undergone at least one knee surgery), then a trade to a willing team might be a better way out of the impasse.
With regard to a trade, any insistence by the Jaguars that they will not trade Jones-Drew is nothing more than hot air. It would be a classic example of what I term negotiation bloviation. If a team rang the Jaguars tomorrow offering two first round picks, MJD would be on a plane to another team within 24 hours, and everybody in the NFL would be hailing the Jaguars ownership as geniuses. For a lesson in how to play poker with a disgruntled player and get maximum value, study the actions of Mike Brown of the Bengals when he shipped Carson Palmer to the Raiders for what could turn out to be two first-round picks.
UPDATE - Rumors are that a number of teams have already contacted the Jaguars about making a trade for Jones-Drew. Despite all of the talking points about running backs being a "fungible commodity", teams will value a running back with a track record. As Bill Parcells said many years ago, when you say a player "has potential", what you are really saying is that he hasn't done anything yet.
Time to get out the popcorn and settle down to watch this one play out. I do not forsee any early resolution.
UPDATE 2 - The Jaguars have once again stated that they will not trade MJD. I take that about as seriously as any of their previous utterances. This is Negotiation Bloviation round 2.
UPDATE 3 - MJD has ended his holdout and reported to the Jaguars. Predictably, the result is being framed in terms of "Jaguars 1, MJD 0", with a lot of crowing that MJD has achieved nothing. Well, if you define "success" in terms of getting a contract re-negotiation, then Maurice Jones-Drew certainly lost. However, the issue of him out-performing his contract remains. So far everybody is saying all of the right things.
As some commentators have pointed out, some teams have trouble attracting free agents, due to negative perceptions about the willingness of the team to invest in players. The Cincinnati Bengals, Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills have all suffered from that perception in recent years, with their ownerships being regarded as more interested in banking profits than investing in free agent acquisitions. (The reality that many great teams have been built using mostly good draft choices is often overlooked). If the Jaguars come to be regarded as a franchise unwilling to invest, and the revelation that they lead the league in unused cap space in 2012 is not going to help,then this will impact their overall ability to improve the team. Ironically, the actions of the Bengals in trading Carson Palmer to the Raiders may turn out to be smart, not just because, on current form, the Bengals got a great deal, but also because, with the rookie contract rules now in effect, teams who build via the draft will be paying a lot less per player than teams that build via free agency. By that logic, the Jaguars should trade MJD if he has another great season. The problem there may be that running backs have little trade value in the modern NFL.