So the day arrived for NFL teams to drop their active rosters to 53 players, and Tim Tebow was not retained by the New England Patriots.
As a 4 year player who has played around a season of games, Tebow was not eligible for the Patriots' practice squad, so the Patriots either had to keep him on the active roster or release him. The general consensus was that he had shown insufficient progress to give the Patriots a sound rationale to keep him on the roster as a third quarterback. Like many NFL teams, the Patriots tend to only carry two quarterbacks in the regular season.
Tebow survived the first round of cuts last Tuesday to 75 players, so it would be safe to assume that his overall roster ranking was less than #75, but greater than #53. Where in that range he would fit we will never know.
The question is now; what next for Tim Tebow? He passed through waivers today without anybody claiming him, so he is now a free agent. Since he had a minimum money 2 year contract with the Patriots, any team claiming him would not be committing to spending any more money than they would be spending if they hired him after he clears waivers, but the failure of any team to submit a waiver clam is not a good sign.
Right now, there are a number of experienced quarterbacks looking for work following the last roster contraction, all of whom would probably be considered ahead of Tim Tebow. The ranks of the suddenly unemployed include Brady Quinn, Vince Young, David Carr, Trent Edwards, John Skelton and Seneca Wallace, all of whom have significant experience as starting QBs in the league.
It is not likely that Tebow would be hired ahead of these guys. He is still a project. The challenge is that NFL rules do not allow him to be managed like a project. Any team hiring him has to put him on the active roster, using up a valuable roster spot. This is not likely to happen.
Right now, the only possible scenario for Tebow this season that could see him on an NFL team is injury to one of the Patriots quarterbacks (although it would not surprise me if the Patriots, who use a pocket passer offensive scheme) hired one of the aforementioned experienced QBs ahead of bringing Tim Tebow back.
The only other option is the CFL. There are precedents for NFL quarterbacks making it in Canada. Both Doug Flutie and Warren Moon went to the CFL after being cast out of the NFL, built their careers there, and then moved back to the NFL. However, if Tim Tebow wants to move to the CFL, he has bigger challenges than making it in the NFL. The CFL plays on a wider field, with a deeper end zone and different line-up rules, with only three downs. This makes accurate throwing beyond essential for a CFL quarterback. Based on his pre-season play this year in the NFL, Tim Tebow would have an uphill struggle to make a CFL team, simply because his deep throwing accuracy is still poor.
Right now, the odds are against Tim Tebow continuing as a professional football player.
UPDATE - Over the weekend the Green Bay Packers and the New York Jets both shored up their precarious quarterback situations by hiring Seneca Wallace and Brady Quinn respectively. The Packers were being mentioned as a possible destination for Tebow. Not any more. The Buffalo Bills seem to be happy to roll with two new quarterbacks also.
UPDATE 2 - It is interesting that neither Bill Belichick or Robert Kraft would shut the door on Tim Tebow ever returning to the Patriots, when asked about that possibility yesterday. It is also worth noting that there is no quarterback on the Patriots' practice squad, and Tom Brady and Ryan Mallett are no mobile quarterbacks. The Patriots could sign Tebow back to the active roster at any time if they need a mobile read-option scout team quarterback for game planning.
A lot of players are signed to teams after week 1, to avoid clubs having to guarantee their salaries if they are vested veterans. Right now, it makes little sense for any team to sign Tim Tebow, unless they have a current quarterback availability crisis. We need to watch and assess the outcome of the Week 1 games. Circumstances could change next week.