Current Affairs

Looking back beyond Donald Trump

The success of Donald Trump in capturing the Republican Party nomination for POTUS seemed to take a lot of people by surprise.
It should not have been a surprise.
The conditions that led to a self-proclaimed “non-politician” and insurgent steamrollering his way to the GOP nomination are not new. The GOP has been vulnerable to, and taking account of, insurgencies for over a decade.
Back in 2010, for example, Sharron Angle, a surprise winner of the GOP Senate primary in Utah, made a statement in a radio interview that was, in tone and substance, almost identical to Donald
Trump’s recent expression of hope that Second Amendment sympathizers would help the USA. This is Angle’s statement from 2010:

Angle: I feel that the Second Amendment is the right to keep and bear arms for our citizenry. This not for someone who’s in the military. This not for law enforcement. This is for us. And in fact when you read that Constitution and the founding fathers, they intended this to stop tyranny. This is for us when our government becomes tyrannical…
Manders: If we needed it at any time in history, it might be right now.
Angle: Well it’s to defend ourselves. And you know, I’m hoping that we’re not getting to Second Amendment remedies. I hope the vote will be the cure for the Harry Reid problems.

This looks remarkably similar to Trump’s recent statement.
Those of us who have been following the “birther” movement since 2007 know that many of the supporters and cheerleaders of that movement are also fans of “second Amendment remedies”. There is a lot of overlap between “birthers” and Sovereign Citizens, many of whom regard the Federal government as illegal and illegitimate, and who are, based on their numerous online pronouncements, simply waiting for the day when they can pull out their weapons and go Vanquish Evil. They are all geared up to fight the Second American Revolution, they just need a good excuse.
The takeover of many State-level Republican parties by the Tea Party since 2008 is a classic example of practical insurgency. The purpose of the Tea Party was to remake the GOP into what they considered to be a “true Conservative” party. One of the favorite tactics of Tea Party activists has been to paint opponents as “insufficiently Conservative”, “RINOs” etc. Effectively, they subjected incumbents to an ideological purity test, and if they were deemed to have failed, the Tea Party members would run their own candidates in an attempt (often successful) to install representatives more to their liking. Sometimes, as in the recent unseating of Renee Ellmers, the Tea Party not only installed their preferred candidate, but also deposed that candidate if they did not (in their view) adopt a radical enough approach once in office.
Sen. John McCain’s nomination of Sarah Palin as his Vice-Presidential running mate in 2008 was a hint of what was going to occur in 2016. Palin fitted the insurgent mold. She was from a state (Alaska) not noted for producing national political figures; she was a woman from a seemingly hardscrabble background who had risen to be the Governor of Alaska; she was married to an authentic-looking outdoorsman; she had a family tragedy (Down’s Syndrome) that she used as a publicity prop; and she was good-looking, albeit in a clumsy and goofy way. She also had the ability to talk in disconnected, semi-nonsensical streams of consciousness, very similar to the speech patterns of Donald Trump. Her themes were a pervasive shout-out to God, Guns and Real America, with implied or actual sneering at “elites” and other groups who were clearly not Real Americans. (The desire to label anybody with a non-matching worldview as “not Real Americans” is now a well-developed obsession for practitioners of resentment politics in the modern USA).
The nomination of Palin proved to be a mini-disaster for the GOP. Palin lacked gravitas, and her dismissal of established norms (such as winking to the camera in the VP debate) made her look unserious. She became the butt of a thousand jokes, and further reduced her credibility by quitting as Governor of Alaska halfway into her term. However, for a long while, she was a heroine to the GOP, who saw in her a reflection of True American Values.
However awkward Sarah Palin was for the GOP, she at least was only the VP nominee. John McCain was there to provide the Gravitas and remind people that here was a serious person running for the office of POTUS.
The GOP today has no such get-out-of-jail card with Donald Trump. By definition, his position as the Presidential nominee puts him at the top of the pecking order, and his insurgent status allows him to ignore established norms in favour of anything that he thinks will work to get his message out. As a result, we are now being treated to a bizarre roller-coaster of speeches, tweets, and interviews where Trump zig-zags all over the map in terms of ideas, policy positions and claims, often contradicting himself multiple times a week. He appears to have no idea what he said yesterday, but hell, it doesn’t matter, here is what I am saying today. Most of what he says is provably nonsensical or untrue, but when challenged on it he either changes the subject or repeats the falsehoods.
However ludicrous and unserious Donald Trump appears to people who expect elected representatives to be sensible, thoughtful and careful, there is a serious underlying issue that his rise is signalling. While Trump’s behavior is the standard behavior of many demagogues throughout history, his attacks on “the establishment”, and his fire-hose offering of grandiose, simplistic solutions, are appealing compellingly to an audience, who, based on numerous studies, appears to comprise a significant number of Americans who believe that America is not meeting their needs, desires and expectations. The fact that Sharron Angle, promulgating a similar (although less scatter-shot) set of messages, could come within 4% of defeating Sen. Harry Reid in 2010 showed that a lot of electors were voting in favor of messages that asserted that the American Dream was not working for them.
One of the more important books of this year is J.D. Vance’s memoir “Hillbilly Elegy”. It is a revealing portrait of the economically depressed and deprived areas of Appalachia and the Rustbelt, where recent changes in the structure of the US economy away from manufacturing and labor-intensive heavy industry have resulted in massive multi-generational unemployment, as formerly productive blue-collar workers were laid off and reduced to scrabbling to survive. Trump’s eager audience is disproportionately comprised of such people, who believe that neither of the major political parties gives a damn about them. Well, except for Donald Trump. He gets them!
Personally, I believe that Trump is playing the majority of his audience like a cheap violin, like the narcissistic huckster that he really is. I also believe that the GOP has been playing that audience for decades, using all manner of resentment dog-whistles. (I have never seen a Democratic party leader talking about “coastal elites”, but I read that kind of doublespeak all the time from GOP partisans). The fact that Donald Trump has found an audience of this size sends a powerful message that there are a lot of people who consider themselves to be losers in the modern American lottery. The hollowing out of many communities has been occurring for decades (and this is not confined to the USA), and the resentment that has been largely hidden (poor people generally don’t run websites, write memoirs or vote in large numbers) has taken a while to truly hit the national stage. We can see a similar pattern in the UK, where the voters who voted to leave the EU were either older, with ingrained suspicions against Europe, or from deprived areas of the UK, where they saw no upside to being in Europe, and in fact saw a downside as “foreigners” came in and took low-wage jobs that they thought were theirs.
The more interesting and dangerous issue is what will happen if Donald Trump (as seems likely based on current opinion polls) loses his bid for the Presidency. He and his supporters are already pre-messaging their unwillingness to accept a defeat by claiming that the system is rigged against them. This is, in my opinion, dangerously close to sedition. If they have evidence that the system is rigged against them (other than the fact that, you know, they have to have a majority of the votes to win), then they need to produce the evidence, or the rest of the political actors in the USA have to tell them to shut up. We may yet see rioting after the fact if the result does not go the way of some of the insurgent supporters. Dealing with riots by poor people in Appalachia will be difficult. They will not be black, or foreign, so they will not be dismissable on those grounds.

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The PR problem for libertarianism

(also posted at Bleeding Heart Libertarians)
As long as a significant number of authoritarians adopt the self-identification of “libertarian” because it sounds cool and less, er, awkward when compared to “authoritarian”, libertarianism will continue to struggle to gain traction with people who self-identify as progressives.
Anecdotally, I often find myself attempting to explain to progressive people why (a) the libertarian movement is not entirely comprised of people who behave like dismissive, Darwinian. authoritarian assholes, and (b) why libertarianism has a lot of ideas that progressive people can and should embrace. I rarely get to (b) because I mostly cannot get past (a). On more than one occasion I have been told that I don’t talk like a libertarian. This seems to come down to the fact that people regard me as reasonable and pleasant.
The unfortunate conclusion to draw is that whatever libertarian (or libertarians) those people previously encountered did not make a favorable impression on an interpersonal level. This speaks to both a perception and communication problem for libertarianism. I read people on my Facebook who are currently seriously considering voting libertarian this election cycle, describing Gary Johnson as “smart” and “reasonable”. My view is that unlike (say) Ron Paul, he does not come across as a cranky curmudgeon. He is interpersonally appealing in a way that many libertarians are not.

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Glenn Frey and The Eagles

The death of Glenn Frey at the age of 67 is an interesting event to experience.
He was, by normal life expectancy standards, still young at 67. The shock is magnified by the fact that most people of my age group who grew up listening to music have listened to and bought Eagles albums. Effectively, the Eagles formed part of the soundtrack of our early adult lives. The images of the members of the Eagles that predominate in our minds are of driven men in their twenties, West Coast cool, tight harmonies, and the rock n’roll lifestyle. Ironically, none of the band members were actually from California. Frey himself was born in Detroit, and like the other members, made his way to California in search of the musical holy grail.
Frey looked pretty much the same until quite recently, although recent images hint at both the onset of old age, and poor health. However, you always tend to remember younger versions of rock and roll royalty. The internet is full of images of the youthful rock and roll playboy Glenn Frey, not the haggard, older drooped-chin Glenn Frey. It is clear from tributes paid since his death that Frey was struggling for a long time with significant health issues. He had also discovered the virtues of family, having swapped the wild man of rock and roll lifestyle for a domestic existence that would have probably horrified his younger self.
The Eagles, for a while, certainly exemplified the rock and roll lifestyle. Frey himself once described the Eagles as “a great way for a man to spend his twenties”. The biographies of the Eagles confirm that the band members did indeed engage in all of the classic rock n’roll lifestyle behaviors of drink, drugs and many women to excess all through the 1970s as their fame and fortune grew massively.
Like many famous bands, the Eagles’ body of work comprises a relatively short period of time – an 8 year period from 1972 to 1980. The original core of the band – Frey, Don Henley, Randy Meisner and Bernie Leadon, recorded the first two albums and some of the third album before they added Don Felder in late 1973, in order to give themselves the heft to play rock n’roll.
Along the way, the Eagles also slowly lost members. Bernie Leadon, who had more practical band experience than the other members, and who had less tolerance for the rock and roll lifestyle, was the first to leave in 1975, after his suggestion that the band not continue with their punishing tour schedule was ignored. Randy Meisner, whose family life also suffered from the same tour schedule, quit 2 years later. (Both men would be financially secure for life; the LP “Eagles Greatest Hits”, released in the mid-70’s, on which they appear, has sold a record 42 million units). The Eagles, despite public appearances, were officially a 3 man corporation thereafter (Frey, Henley and Felder) with Joe Walsh and Timothy B. Schmidt as salaried members, until Don Felder was fired in 2001. In true Hollywood fashion, lawsuits were exchanged over his firing, and not settled until 2009.
Don Henley’s polite allusion to “family dysfunctionalities” in his tribute to Frey was merely a confirmation of what has already been revealed by autobiographies – the Eagles band members often squabbled, and occasionally got into both legal and physical fights. Being a member of the Eagles was akin to taking part in some endurance race, albeit one with large financial rewards. Felder’s rift with Frey and Henley after his firing was permanent, and his own biography paints a picture of a band that was not a happy place. Large egos, drugs, wild women, too much touring, pressure to deliver the Next Great Album – what could possibly go wrong?
The Eagles made a lot of money in the late 1970’s, but it is clear that they were burned out physically and musically by 1980. Ultimately, the combination of burning the candle at both ends and in the middle led to the band going on hiatus for the best part of 15 years. The second and third acts, starting with the “Hell Freezes Over” tour, were mostly the band operating in jukebox mode, with only a small amount of new material being recorded and released. The tours were immensely popular and profitable, but there was no new music to play, so the sets comprised The Eagles Greatest Hits, plus solo material from Frey, Henley and Walsh.
Frey worked as a solo artist in the 1980’s and expanded into acting and production, as he tried to answer the question “what next?” Shorn of the Eagles backdrop, he showed his love for straight ahead pop and R&B. He had hit singles, but it is fair to say that neither he nor Don Henley came anywhere near their achievements as members of the Eagles.
Frey’s songwriting was praised in obituaries, but he was often a collaborator, especially on the early albums. “Take It Easy”, effectively the Eagles’ signature tune along with “Hotel California”, began life with Jackson Browne, who conceived the song structure and the first verse and chorus, handing it off to Frey, who wrote the memorable second verse about the girl in the flatbed Ford. Browne’s version of the song is much more sophisticated musically than the Eagles’ version, which is more straight-ahead rock n’roll, albeit with the organic country edge that Bernie Leadon provided (Leadon’s dancing banjo can be heard starting under the guitar solo and through the rest of the song). A number of other Eagles songs on the first 3 LPs were collaborations, or from other songwriters.
Frey matured into a more confident songwriter when the band transitioned to a rock and roll focus in the 1974-75 time period, moving away from the country-influenced acoustic sound that marked their first 2 LPs. Frey seems to have been the primary instigator of the transition. The first two albums were recorded in London with Glyn Johns producing, but Frey was frustrated with the production approach, which he felt was holding back the rock and roll side of the band, so the band relocated recording to the USA and the transition of the Eagles to full-bore rock and roll began. Ironically, “Best Of My Love”, the first major Eagles hit single, was the last song recorded in London produced by Glyn Johns.
I was a fan of the Eagles starting from the time when their first LP was released, but, as a guitar player and lover of natural sounding music, I steadily lost interest as the band morphed into a pop-rock band, spending progressively more time and money on studio work. I came to realize that I lost interest in the band when Bernie Leadon left. His acoustic-first approach, country playing style, and quirky approach to songwriting was one of the main reasons that I liked the band in the first place. My favorite Eagles tune is “Bitter Creek” from their second LP “Desperado”, which is their least-selling album. The song, written in Drop D tuning, sounds different to most of the other Eagles songs as a result, and the subject matter, typical for Leadon, is also different – is an introspective warning message, totally acoustic.
“Desperado” is my favorite Eagles album, simply because it seemed to me to be a genuine attempt at assembling a song cycle based on the myths of the Old West and the outlaw pathology (rock trivia fans always like to check out the dead outlaw images on the cover photos, which comprise the band and most of their songwriting collaborators of the time). It also sounds more coherent than their first or third albums, which are more uneven in terms of songwriting. I found “One Of These Nights” to be way too polished for my taste, and in hindsight, it was clear that Bernie Leadon was signaling his estrangement from the band, with his two compositions, “Journey Of The Sorcerer” and “I Wish You Peace”, being essentially solo compositions and recordings that did not fit with the rest of the album . By the time of “Hotel California”, every song on that album spoke to me saying “bunch of guys wrote average rock and roll songs and spent too much time in the studio working on them”. I listened to a friend’s copy of the LP several times, resolved to not buy it, and that was that. You couldn’t fault the technical excellence of the band, the songs and the harmonies, but for me, something important had gone missing along the way. The band had lost its emotional and organic musical core, trading it for polished rock and roll glitz. Large dollops of fame and fortune were the result, of course.
How good a songwriter was Glenn Frey? It is a difficult question to answer, because most of his better-known compositions were actually collaborations. I regarded him more as a synthesizer of ideas and source of vision, both of which are important skills if you want to be a musical artist. He was not prolific, it seemed to me that he relied more on important virtues like crafting than on wells of inspiration. I see him less as a great songwriter and more as the source of focus and drive for the early Eagles, unafraid to work to kick the band along to bigger and better things.

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The qualifications of Ben Carson to be POTUS

Every time there is a Presidential election in the USA, trees are felled and converted to communicate tedious and ultimately almost irrelevant discussions as people seek the answer to one question: is the candidate qualified to be POTUS?
On one level, the question is pretty much unanswerable. There is only one job of POTUS. There is no apprenticeship for the job. Vice-President is a ceremonial role, usually occupied by a person deemed to be no threat to the POTUS.
Running a country is NOT the same as running a business. Anybody who claims that it is should be asked to explain how it is the same. Answers like “balancing the checkbook” will instantly show the person to be unserious.
So, a lot of viewpoints about qualifications boil down to intangibles, like the horrible question about whether somebody “looks Presidential”. This implies that being POTUS is all about artifice and posing, not achivements, a triumph of style over substance.
On one level, however, it has never been easier to examine a person’s qualification to be POTUS. The internet can be a good source of information as long as the information is verified.
In the case of Ben Carson, a well-known pediatric surgeon, one interesting viewpoint on his qualifications is that of fellow medical practitioners. The view is not flattering.

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Today’s round-up – 11/20/2015

1. Xenophobia and Nativism – US Style
SouthWest Airlines briefly pulls two passengers off a plane after another passenger overhears them talking in Arabic.

2. Who does Terrorism and does it work?
Sen. Sherrod Brown correctly notes that most of the recent terrorist attacks in the USA came from white US men. This will of course have little impact on the current scare, since it is contrary to the narrative that terrorists are scary people from outside the USA.
Harvard Business review has an article explaining why and how everybody under the sun thinks that responses to terrorism, no matter what they are, are “what the terrorists want”. In the meantime, researchers who have actually studied terrorism in depth have concluded that most of the time, terrorist organizations and groups fail to advance their goals with terrorist activity.

3. The “liberal media”
That shibboleth that the US media is liberal? Based on recent pronouncements by Fox News anchors compared to CNN, like hell it is. CNN suspends Elise Labott after her statement that the Statue Of Liberty hung its head in shame” following the passage of a House bill to suspend refugee processing. In the meantime, Fox News commentators make all sorts of bellicose grandstanding statements about the US needing to “close our borders to any country with anti-Western sentiment.” If Fox News has been suspending their commentators, they have been keeping it very very quiet…

4. Texas Board of Education appears to not like fact-checking
The crackpot-dominated SBOE appears to be terribly non-keen on having experts fact-check textbooks. It’s always good to know that our education stewards value expert opinion

5. Donald Trump deserves his criticism to be reflected back at him
After Donald Trump felt it was necessary to verbally abuse a heckler on the basis of his physical appearance, a journalist decides that maybe it is time for a critique of Trump’s own fashion sense and body. Karma is a wonderful thing.

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